Calidad y cantidad: estudios de caso, probabilidad condicional y contrafácticos.

Jasjeet Singh Sekhon

Resumen


En contraste con los métodos estadísticos, existe un cierto número de métodos basados en estudios de caso –colectivamente conocidos como métodos de Mill, utilizados por generaciones de investigadores en ciencias sociales– que sólo toman en consideración relaciones de tipo determinista. Lo hacen en detrimento de sí mismos, pues si tomasen en cuenta las lecciones básicas de la inferencia estadística, podrían evitar serios errores inferenciales. Resulta de particular importancia utilizar probabilidades condicionales para poder comparar contrafácticos relevantes. Un ejemplo destacado que aplica los métodos de Mill es la obra States and Social Revolutions, de Theda Skocpol.

Palabras clave


inferencia estadística, métodos de Mill, probabilidad condicional, relaciones de tipo determinista, contrafácticos

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Referencias


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