Calidad y cantidad: estudios de caso, probabilidad condicional y contrafácticos

Autores/as

  • Jasjeet Singh Sekhon Universidad de Harvard

Palabras clave:

Inferencia estadística, métodos de Mill, probabilidad condicional, relaciones de tipo determinista, contrafácticos

Resumen

En contraste con los métodos estadísticos, existe un cierto número de métodos basados en estudios de caso –colectivamente conocidos como métodos de Mill, utilizados por generaciones de investigadores en ciencias sociales– que sólo toman en consideración relaciones de tipo determinista. Lo hacen en detrimento de sí mismos, pues si tomasen en cuenta las lecciones básicas de la inferencia estadística, podrían evitar serios errores inferenciales. Resulta de particular importancia utilizar probabilidades condicionales para poder comparar contrafácticos relevantes. Un ejemplo destacado que aplica los métodos de Mill es la obra States and Social Revolutions, de Theda Skocpol.

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Biografía del autor/a

Jasjeet Singh Sekhon, Universidad de Harvard

Doctor por el Departamento de Gobierno de la Universidad de Cornell (Ithaca, NY). Profesorasociado en el Departamento de Gobierno de la Universidad de Harvard y en el Departamento de Ciencia Política de la Universidad de California, en Berkeley. Recientemente ha publicado en coautoría: “SteroidResponsive (Autoimmune?) Sclerosing Cholangitis” (Digestive Disease and Sciences,vol. 50, núm. 10, pp. 1838-1843, 2005) y “Black Candidates and Black Voters: Assessing the Impact of Candidate Race on Uncounted Vote Rates” (Journal of Politics,vol. 67, núm. 1, 2005).

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Publicado

2019-01-14

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