Determinantes socioeconómicos de la posesión de automóviles en los municipios de México

Ignacio Javier Cruz Rodríguez

Resumen


El principal objetivo de este artículo es cuantificar los impactos de variables socioeconómicas en la posesión de vehículos en los municipios de México para el año 2010. Se separaron los municipios es urbanos y rurales y se tomó la información del censo económico para estimar los impactos en cada uno. Los resultados indican que el ingreso es la variable de mayor impacto en la posesión, de hecho, es de mayor magnitud que las estimaciones encontradas en la literatura alrededor del mundo. Otras variables de importancia son la densidad de población y la provisión de vialidades que ofrece evidencia de tráfico inducido. Los resultados son comentados en términos de su utilidad para la formulación de políticas.

Palabras clave


Posesión de automóvil, Municipios, México, movilidad, motorización

Texto completo:

PDF XML

Referencias


Abu, Toasin Md Oakil., Akil, Dorien. y Nijland, Hans (2016), “Determinants of car ownership among young households in the Netherland: The role of Urbanization and Demographic and economic characteristics”, Journal of Transport Geography, 51, pp. 229-235.

Bagley, Michael y Mokhtarian, Patricia (2002), “The impact of residential neighborhood type in travel behavior: a structural equation modeling approach”, Annals of Regional Science, vol. 36, núm. 2. pp. 279-297.

Boltnivik, Julio (1984), “Satisfacción desigual de las necesidades esenciales en México”, en: Cordera, Rolando y Tello, Carlos. La desigualdad en México, siglo XXI editores, México

Cao, Xinyu, Handy, Susan y Mokhtarian, Patricia (2006), “The influences of the built enviroment and residential self-selection on pedestrian behaviour: Evidence from Austin”, TX, Transportation 33, pp. 1-20.

Caudillo, Cos., Camilo, Montejano y Jorge, Schmidt y Mura, Suyay (2016), La movilidad en la sociedad contemporánea, Conference Paper, Centro de estudios demográficos, urbanos y ambientales. El Colegio de México.

Clark, Stephen (2009), “Characterising and predicting car ownership using rough sets”, Transportation Research Part C, Volumen 17, pp. 381-393.

Chingcuanco, Franco y Miller, Eric (2014), “A meta-model of vehicle ownership choice parameters”, Transportation , Volumen 41, pp. 923-945.

Cullinane, Sharon (2002), “The relationship between car owenership and public transport provision: a case study of Hong Kong”, Transport Policy, Vol. 9, núm. 1, pp. 29-39

Dargay, Joyce y Gately, Dermot (1999). “Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, world wide: 1960-2015”, Transportation Research Part A.

Dargay, Joyce (2001), “The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 35 issue 9, pp. 807-821.

Dargay, Joyce (2002), “Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panl analysis”, Transportation Research Part E 38, pp. 351-366

Dargay, Joyce y Guliano, Genevieve (2006), “Car ownership, travel and land use: a comparision of the US and Great Britain”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 40, núm. 2, pp. 106-124.

Dargay, Joyce, Dermot, Gately y Sommer, Martin(2006), “Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030”, Energy Journal, vol. 28, núm. 4, pp. 1-32.

Eakins, John (2013), The determinants of Household car ownership: empirical evidence from the Irish household budget survey. SEEDS 144, University of Surrey.

Galindo, Luis, Heres, David, y Sánchez, Luis (2006), “Tráfico inducido en México: contribuciones al debate e implicaciones de política pública”, Estudios demográficos y urbanos, vol. 21, núm , pp. 123-157.

González-Arellano, Salomón (2013), “El sistema automóvil: propuesta conceptual a partir de la noción de operador espacial”, Quivera, Vol. 15, núm. 2013-2, julio-diciembre, pp. 23-42.

Goodwin, Phil (1996), “Empirical evidence on induced traffic: A review and synthesis”, Transportation, vol. 23, núm 23. pp. 35-54.

Guerra, Erick (2015), “The geography of car ownership in Mexico City: a joint model of housholds residential location and car ownership decicsions”, Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 43, pp. 171-180.

Handy, Susan, Cao, Xinyu y Mokhtarian Patricia (2005), “Correlation or causality between the buitl enviroment and travel behavior? Evidence from Nothern California”, Transportation Research Part D, 10, pp. 427-444.

Hanly, Mark y Dargay, Joyce (2000), “Car ownership in Great Bretain, a panel data analysis”, Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1718, núm, 1. pp.83-89.

Hong, Sok Kim y Eungcheol, Kim (2004), “Effects of public transit on automobile ownership and use in households of the USA”, Review of urban and regional development studies, vol. 16, núm. 3, pp. 245-262.

Hsu, Tien, Chia-Chia, Tsai y Lin, Yu (2007), “Comparative analysis of household car and motorcycle ownership characteristics”, Journal of Eastern Asia society for Transport studies, vol. 7, pp. 105-115.

Huang, Xiayi (2011), Car Ownwership Modeling and forecasts for China. Mimeo, Tesis de Maestría. Michigan Technological University.

Ingram, Gregory y Liu, Zhi (1999), “Determinants of motorization and Road provision”, Policy Research Working Paper No. 2042, The World Bank.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (2010), Encuesta Nacional de la Juventud.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (2015), Encuesta Nacional sobre Confianza del Consumidor. Documento metodológico.

Johnstone, Nick, Serret, Ysé y Bureau, Clotilde (2009), The determinants of car ownership and use. OECD conference. Paris.

Kitamura, Ryuichi (1989), “A causal analysis of car ownership and transit use”, Transportation, vol. 16, núm. 2, pp. 155-173.

Macfarland, Gregory, Garroe, Laurie y Mokhtarian, Patricia (2015), “The Influences of past and present residential locations on vehicle ownership decisions”, Transport Research Part A, Vol. 74, pp. 186-200.

Matas, Ana y Raymond, Josep (2008). Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain, Transportation Research A, vol. 42, núm. 1, pp. 607-617.

Morales, Efraín (2001), Introducción a la econometría. Editorial ABYA-YALA, Quito, Ecuador.

Nobile, Agostino; Chandra, Bath, y Pas, Eric (1995), “A Random effects multinomial probit model of car ownership choice. National Institute of Statisitical Science”, Technical Report Number 41.

Potoglou, Dimitris y Kanaroglou, Pavlos (2008), “Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada”, Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 16, núm. 1, pp. 42-54.

Rooda, Matthew (1998), Toronto area car ownership study: A longitudinal survey and preliminary analysis of results. Masters degree Thesis. Mimeo

Root, Amanda y Schintler, Laurie (1999), “Women, motorization and the environment”, Transportation Research Part D, 4, pp. 353-355.

Ryan, James y Han, Gregory (1999), “Vehicle ownership model using family structure and accesibility: application to Honolulu Hawaii”, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol. 1676, pp. 1-10.

Sánchez-Flores, Oscar y Romero-Torres, Javier (2010), “Factores de Calidad del servicio en el transporte público de pasajeros: estudio de caso de la ciudad de Toluca, México”, Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, vol. X, núm. 32, pp. 49-80.

Schwanen, Tim y Mokhtarian, Patricia. (2005), “What affects commute mode choice. Neighborhood physical structure or preference toward neighborhood”, Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 13, pp. 83-99.

Sun, Bindog, Zhang, Tinglin, He, Zhou y Wang, Rui (2015), “Urban spatial structure and motorization in China”, Journal of Regional Science. Doi:10.1111/jors.12237

Xu, Mingtao, Ye, Zhirui y Shan, Xiaofeng (2015), “Modelling, analysis and simulation of the codevelopment of road networks and vehicle ownership”, Physica A, pp. 1-12.

Yagi, Michiyuki y Managi, Shunsuke (2016), “Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan”, MPRA Paper No. 71614.

Yamamoto, Toshiyuki (2009), “Comparative Analysis of household car, motorcycle and bicycle ownership between Osaka metropolitan area, Japan and Kuala Lumpur, Malasya”, Transportation, vol. 36, núm. 3, pp. 351-366.

Woldeamanuel, Mintesnot, Cyganski, Rita, Schulz, Angelika y Justen, Andreas (2009), “Variation of households car ownership across time: application of a panel data model”, Transportation, 36, pp. 371-387.


Métricas de artículo

Vistas Resumen.
Número total de vistas al resumen de este artículo.
a description of the source 30
Esta revista








Cargando métricas ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM


  Esta obra está bajo una Licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional.